Upton’s Last Stand

Well traveled and well paid, a first overall pick nears the end

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“Enigma.”

That was the word Diamondbacks managing general partner Ken Kendrick used to describe Justin Upton during a radio interview in June 2012. Nobody in the organization, as far as I know, anticipated controversy stirred from upon high on that day.

But when, really, does anyone expect an owner to vent his frustrations publicly and call out a player who finished in the top five of MVP voting only months earlier? (Honestly, I’m not sure if that’s a rhetorical question. If you have a response, feel free to use the comment section below.)

Kendrick’s comments, however unwanted, unnecessary, and disruptive, spoke to the inconsistencies of a young player burdened by the expectations of his draft pedigree. Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 Draft.

He made his Major League debut at the age of 19, made his first All-Star team at 21 and, by 23, was a legitimate MVP candidate.

A player selected first overall often must bear the weight of unrealistic expectations. Not everyone becomes Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, or Bryce Harper. In the three years leading up to Upton’s draft, the first overall picks were Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, and Matt Bush.

The top pick who is a great comp for Upton is Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals pitcher, in fact, was viewed by some in the game as the best prospect ever.

Yet for all the hype and promise, Strasburg has only truly factored into the Cy Young conversation twice. Like Upton, he’s burned bright in season-long stints but has never really dominated over a multi-year span.

Whereas Strasburg has been with Washington for his entire professional career, Upton is well traveled. As soon as Kendrick labeled Upton, the clock on his tenure in the desert began ticking.

About eight months later, while I was on my honeymoon, Upton was traded to the Braves. Two years after that, the Padres sent a quartet of players including Max Fried to Atlanta for the outfielder.

Upton was still only 27, and he had already been managed by Bob Melvin, Bud Black, and Dave Roberts.¹ Those three men are all managing NL West teams this season.

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During Upton’s final two and a half seasons in Arizona, Kirk Gibson was the manager. By the 2012 season, I began to appreciate Gibby’s heightened sensitivity to Upton’s struggles. Gibson, a former first-round draft choice, had often found himself in the crosshairs of others’ expectations.

I’ve never asked Gibby about this, but I began to believe that the manager saw some of himself in his young player. To shepherd Upton through nagging injuries and nagging owners would be Gibson’s way of repurposing his own struggles into managerial wisdom.

Almost 10 seasons later, check out the two player’s career stats:

Gibson: .268 / .352 / .463 | OPS+ 123

Upton: .261 / .343 / .470 | OPS+ 117

Upton has had nearly 1,000 more plate appearances, but the two players’ rates are similar.

Of course, in free agency the Tigers awarded Upton something they wouldn’t give Gibson — a lucrative contract. Prior to the 2016 season, Detroit signed Upton to a six-year, $132 million deal.

Less than two years later, he was traded to the Angels, who ultimately added a year to the existing deal in order to prevent Upton from exercising an opt-out clause in the contract. That leverage earned him a guaranteed $17.5 million for this season.

From 2019-2021, Upton’s production fell off significantly. He performed below league average, although he did manage to maintain some power. He was cut loose before Opening Day this season and languished in free agency before the injury-depleted Mariners signed him in late May.

Upton is 4-for-32 with 15 strikeouts since being brought back up to the big leagues two weeks ago. The mounting injuries to the M’s outfielders is probably the only thing ensuring Upton’s roster spot right now.

Earlier this season, the Padres gave Robinson Cano 34 plate appearances before releasing him. Cano was replaced by Nomar Mazara, who has given the Friars more than they could have ever hoped for. He’s hitting around .300 and performing about 35% better than league average.

The Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, never one to let a roster stand pat, is likely searching for his own Mazara to provide a spark to the offense.

This is Justin Upton’s last stand.

Perhaps, if things in the Emerald City come to a close soon, he might latch on with the moribund Nationals. Mike Rizzo, who presides over baseball operations in our nation’s capital, was the scouting director in Arizona when Upton was selected.

But what Upton will choose to do when that time comes is a mystery.

If, indeed, this is the end for Upton, I’ll choose to remember him for the impact he brought to the 2011 Diamondbacks lineup. Part of that season’s offensive philosophy included an aggressive approach on 3-0 counts. Why give the pitcher a free strike?

Thirty-five times that season, Upton found himself ahead in the count 3-0. On eight occasions, he swung at the next pitch.

Upton registered five hits, including three home runs. Ambush!

That was the attitude that won the NL West. Nothing enigmatic about it.

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1. Dave Roberts was the interim manager of the Padres for one day in 2015.