Hey Siri, Steal A Base

When Artificial Intelligence and potential Gold Gloves collide

As the saying goes: You can’t steal first base.

But if any organization were to defy that old adage, my money would be on the Rays.

That’s why, when Tampa Bay inconspicuously slid in as the third team in the deadline deal that sent Trey Mancini from Baltimore to Houston, I wondered what the Rays had divined.

Heading from Minute Maid Park to Tropicana Field in the Mancini trade was a player who has twice been designated for assignment and twice claimed off waivers. At the time of the trade, he was batting .178 for Houston and striking out in about one-third of his plate appearances.

So what did the Rays find so attractive about 27-year-old Jose Siri?

Siri rarely walks, frequently strikes out, and… is the fastest man in Major League Baseball. (The accent is on the second syllable of his last name, so his name and the name of the Apple bot are pronounced differently.)

According to Statcast data from the 2022 season, Siri was in the 95th percentile for outfielder jumps, 99th percentile for outs above average, and in the 100th percentile for sprint speed.

Oh, and he’s also in the 95th percentile for arm strength.

What does all of this mean? If Siri can’t catch a ball, nobody can.

Click here to see a few highlights from this season. He’s good.

For the last eight years, the Rays have relied on three-time Gold Glove winner Kevin Kiermaier, when healthy, to patrol center field. While Siri’s run creation abilities might seem limited based off the information provided here so far, his run prevention portfolio is outstanding. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll be making the Major League minimum for the next two seasons either.

Offensive Upside

Siri’s speed gives him a chance to be a productive offensive player, even with such high strikeout rates.

In 178 plate appearances with Tampa this season, most of which came from the eight- or nine-hole in the lineup, he hit .241 — a significant upgrade from his average with the Astros. (His walk rates and extra base hits remained constant, so the bumps in OBP and SLG were strictly driven by average.)

This season across all of Major League Baseball, the ninth spot in the order batted .227 with a .289 OPB and a .348 SLG. Siri, with the Rays, was actually above average compared to his fellow bottom-of-the-lineup peers.

Maybe brand of orange juice really does matter. (It does. Can I get some Simply Orange?!)

Siri went 1-for-9 with a home run and five strikeouts in Tampa’s two postseason games against the Guardians. The Rays valued his defense enough to start him in their two biggest games of the year. No reason for me to believe that he won’t be in the Opening Day lineup next season.

Bigger bases, greater value

In 56 games for Tampa, Siri successfully swiped eight bases and was caught only once. He’s got an 85% success rate in limited (20) big league attempts. With his speed, he can cause constant havoc on the bases — as long as he can get on.

Don’t forget that next season the bases will increase in size. The bags currently are 15 inches square; in 2023, they’ll grow to 18 inches square. The new bases will reduce the distance between stations by 4.5 inches.

Combined with limitations on pickoff attempts for pitchers, the change should spark the running game.

How much did Tampa consider these changes when they acquired Siri? The defense is enough to warrant a roster spot. Kiermaier dominated games defensively during his peak. Siri can do the same.

But in addition to improving their defense in the middle of the field, the Rays also could have a head start on exploiting rule changes still yet to be implemented.

But first…

What an NLCS we have to look forward to!

Prior to the 2019 season, the Phillies and Padres awarded a combined $630 million to two players. Expectations in both Philly and San Diego seemed unreasonable almost instantly.

Case in point: each team is on its third full-time manager since those signings.

And now, we’ll get Bryce Harper vs. Manny Machado in a best-of-seven series. I can’t wait. What do you think?