Relegated to the Central

A series between the Red Sox and the Twins highlights the extremes in balance of power

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Anyone who has watched “Ted Lasso” or “Welcome To Wrexham” can appreciate the tension and anxiety that looms over the threat of relegation to a lesser league. Similarly, you don’t need to be a soccer fan to have a sense of the prestige and fortune that’s part of promotion to a higher league.

European soccer football is built upon a structure of interconnected leagues arranged hierarchically; in turn, two or three teams per league annually step up or slide down one level. Tanking for draft priority and financial savings isn’t an option. In soccer, losing comes with the kinds of consequences that gets the attention of ownership in a hurry.

I don’t know nearly enough about international soccer contracts or the transfer windows to carry this narrative much further. But the Cubs and Cardinals are playing two games in London this weekend, so warm up your beers and be thankful that MLB is making a stronger offering than, say, the Falcons against the Jets.

Soccer has been on my mind for much of the baseball season because of what’s been going on in the AL East and Central. Every time I peek at the standings, I see a 10-team table.

Here’s a look at the standings through the completion of yesterday’s games.

Take another look. Those teams are in order from top to bottom.

Today, the Twins and Red Sox conclude a four-game series. Boston took the first two games of the series before Minnesota won last night. The last-place Sox are three games over .500, and the first-place Twins are one game under!

Overall, the AL East is a combined 218-157, and the AL Central is 156-215. The East is 55-24 (.696) against the Central. I’m not trying to convince you that these outcomes are anything more than a geographical anomaly. No, my hope is that some of you find the standings as visually satisfying as I do.

Here’s how it looked on May 10.

At least the division-leading Twins had a winning record at that point. I took a screenshot that night because there was no way this quirk could continue much longer. Well, I’m still waiting.

And we could be waiting for a while.

The latest into a season that a team in last place has had a better record than a division leader was September 28, 2005. Through the games of that day, the Padres led the NL West with a record of 79-79, while the Marlins were in last place in the NL East at 80-79. Thank you to John Labombarda at the Elias Sports Bureau for providing that information!

The Curse of 82-80?

That 2005 Padres team won the NL West after going 82-80, the worst record of any division winner in the history of the game. On the other side of the country, the Washington Nationals finished last in the NL East at 81-81. Those Nats are the only last place team ever to finish at .500. (The Marlins finished 83-79.)

I don’t know what kind of karmic retribution is attached to a mediocre division-winning franchise, but the Padres still seem to be paying for it nearly 20 years later.

Balanced Schedule

With a more balanced schedule unveiled this season, teams in stronger divisions, like the AL East, benefit from 24 fewer games against those familiar divisional rivals. On the flip side, the Twins will face the moribund Royals only 13 times this year instead of the previously unbalanced total of 19.

If we’re looking for reason to believe that the last-place team in the AL East could finish at or above .500 and the division winner in the Central could finish at or below .500, the revamped schedule delivers.

Hold Steady, Twin Cities!

In 2015, the year in which both Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano debuted for Minnesota, I was responsible for scouting the Twins late in the season. I still remember an absolute monster homer Sano hit at Camden Yards.

While Sano showcased game-changing power, Buxton displayed his speed, strength, and athleticism every night. I turned each of them in as an ‘8’ — top-of-the-scale, perennial MVP candidates.

Injuries and a lack of commitment to physical fitness have left Sano out of the game at the age of 30. It’s sad that all that light-tower power could disappear with nary a whimper.

Meanwhile, in seven full seasons, Buxton has only played in more than 92 games once (in 2017 when he was 23). The accumulation of injuries have relegated the Gold Glove-caliber center fielder to designated hitter duties for the entirety of this season so far. Unfortunately, his production has fallen well short of the expectations for that position. Buxton is an unlikely wild card in the lineup, but his revival is essential if the Twins plan to have a constructive summer.