Trenton Makes, Judge Rakes
Roger, The Babe and Aaron
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The scout in front of me had history with him, but it was my first time seeing Aaron Judge. “I need to see if he can handle velocity,” the scout told me, essentially revealing that the 6’7 prospect had passed every other test that minor league baseball could issue.
The Trenton Thunder had opened the 2015 season with a week on the road. Here we were, in the bottom of the 10th of the home opener, with two outs in the inning. The Portland Sea Dogs pitcher had a fastball that registered in the mid- to upper-90s, a speed that was still considered well above average only seven years ago.
The entire scout section wanted one thing: to go home.
On a 1-0 offering, Judge turned around a 95 MPH fastball. The ball got small in a hurry, soaring over the 35-foot left field wall at Arm & Hammer Park (now called Trenton Thunder Ballpark) and disappearing into the night.
The World Takes
Until that season, Trenton was only a city I passed through on the way to or from New York. Like thousands of other commuters, I looked forward to the sight of the Lower Trenton Bridge — I had to look up the name just now — while riding the train and seeing “TRENTON MAKES THE WORLD TAKES” illuminated. It always seemed to have a letter or two extinguished.
The bridge, in fact, makes an appearance in Stealing Home, a movie that stars Mark Harmon as an ex-baseball player.
With my assigned scouting coverage, Trenton was no longer a drive-by city for me. As I spent more time watching the Double-A Yankees affiliate that season, I learned that while Trenton Makes, Judge Needed To Improve His Takes. His plate discipline was good, not great. He handled everything he swung at in the strike zone; the problem came with chasing breaking balls out of the zone.
Silly me, I was concerned that an inflated strikeout rate would inhibit his ceiling. Fast-forward to present day, and our likely AL MVP is striking out more than once every four plate appearances. (Mike Trout did the same when he won the first of his three MVP awards in 2014.)
Great Judgment
It turns out that Judge’s understanding of his own playing abilities was better than his minor league strike-zone judgment.
Prior to this season, Judge turned down an extension offer from the Yankees that would have been worth $213.5 million over seven years (beginning in 2023). The slugger made a bet on himself that would make Pete Rose blush.
He walked away from $30.5 million annually. My bet is that he receives a nine-year deal worth at least $35 million per year.
Chasing Roger
Judge has hit 55 homers already this season, and there are 24 games to go. He’s basically good for one round-tripper every two-and-a-half games — or one every 10.7 plate appearances.
Chasing history is great for the game and great for fans. Whether you recognize 73, 61*, or 60 as the single-season home run record, the Fresno St. product is having must-see at bats nightly. Plus, do you know any fan who is indifferent toward the Yankees?
When I filed my report for the Rays in 2015, I put a 7 on Judge’s game power. According to Tampa Bay’s calibrations, that grade represented 27-35 HR at the time. In the three seasons during which Judge has stayed healthy enough to have at least 500 plate appearances, he’s exceeded that projection. I’d say I was a little light on his potential.
This year, he’s testing the upper limits of the scale.
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