Ouch!

As more pitches register above 100 MPH, we reconsider the HBP rules

They say not to post on the Fourth of July. A holiday in the middle of the week isn’t good for opens or clicks, which has become a euphemism for reading.

I’m publishing, though, with you, the WTP reader, in mind. Because you are readers.

Today, many of you might find yourself at a cookout, parade, or other Star Spangled social gathering. At some point in the day, you’ll need something to talk to your drunk cousin Logan about. Might as well make it interesting.

I can’t go all the way back to 1776 for you, but I’ll start at 1886. Grover Cleveland was in the White House and, by Independence Day, the President had been wed to his 21-year-old bride for one whole month. The marriage caught the country by surprise because — and I just learned this — the expectation was that Cleveland would marry the bride’s mother. Keep in mind we’re talking about the only president to serve non-consecutive terms here.

Sure, the gossip of ’86 is entertaining, but why do I bring it up? Well, in 1886, if a batter was hit by a pitch, it was a ball. Take your base? Not so fast, Buck Ewing.

It was a time when men stayed in the batter’s box, the Dakotas were lining up for statehood, and bimetallism kept ’em quarreling at the saloons. Not until 1887 did the HBP entitle the batter to first base.

For 138 seasons — no matter the distance from rubber to plate, no matter the height of the mound, no matter the amount of tack allowed on pitchers’ hands, no matter the coverage of the armor donned by hitters — for 138 seasons, a batter has been awarded first base, as Major League Rule 5.05(b)(2) spells out today, when “he is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit.” It doesn’t sound so painful like that. But maybe it’s time for a change.

How hard anyway?

Very educated guesses have been made as to the velocity of pitchers from a time before radar guns. Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, and Lefty Grove are considered among the very hardest throwers from the first half of the 20th century. Various reports credit them with fastballs reaching the upper 90s.

But, with the exception of Johnson, no one ever sat at that velocity; it was achieved only a couple times — when it was really needed — in an outing.

Most of the league threw softer. How soft? Somewhere in the 80s, it seems. None of the hurlers went to pitch-shaping labs during the winter. None had weighted ball routines or the benefit of biomechanical analysis to optimize velocity. They pitched, and batters swung.

The availability of PITCHf/x data beginning in 2008 allows us to track velocity more reliably. The average fastball in 2008 came in just below 92; today, it clocks above 94.

All of this is to say that for well over a century, pitchers have been able to plunk batters and, in turn, only surrender first base.

Flagrant HBP

The NBA has flagrant fouls. The NHL has double-minor penalties and majors. The punishment more closely fits the crime.

If a baseball player gets hit by 99 in the face or 82 in the thigh, he’s awarded the same base. As Major League pitchers chase the highest velocity and greatest movement — and as many forsake endurance for optimized swing-and-miss efficacy of each pitch — are batters at risk of greater injury? Remember, this is a conversation piece while you’re waiting for your burger to come off the grill.

Be warned: The chart below is a little misleading. Each data point is from the season at the turn of the decade only, except the most recent point, which is from last year. (The 2020 season is problematic for aggregate stats.) The number of teams, games, and at-bats in a season has grown significantly over the past 100 years. But so have the absolute number of players getting hit by pitches.

Last season, 2112 batters were plunked, a number most amusing perhaps to baseball fan Geddy Lee. That amount tied the all-time high, set in 2021.

Let’s talk rates

In the history of the game, there have been 16 seasons during which the hit-by-pitch rate per game is .40 or greater. Nine of those seasons occurred between 1890-1900; seven of them (including this season) fall between 2018-present. Batters are getting hit more often now than they have in more than 100 years, back when President Cleveland was in office for his second term. While today’s batters have the benefit of helmets, they remain at the mercy of an industry that rewards extreme velocity and movement. It’s not that command isn’t important, but when you throw 98 with a nasty slider, pinpoint placement loses some value.

Open to new ideas

I was opposed to the expansion era Wild Card. I’m opposed to the third Wild Card spot today. I don’t love the pitch clock, and — where I once did like the ghost runner in extra innings — I have had enough of that, too. Additionally, I miss seeing pitchers hit in National League parks; I miss the strategy of the NL game.

In general, I don’t care for change. I don’t like novelty. But I have an idea:

If a batter is hit in the upper body or upper extremities by a pitch at or above 95 MPH, let’s award him two bases. All baserunners will also advance two bases.

Now I know that pitchers aren’t trying to hit batters. More than even, I believe, pitchers do not throw at guys intentionally. But that means that more hit batters are victims of wildness. Pitchers are intentionally throwing to the upper edge of the strike zone. Sound pitching conventions used to dictate fastballs at the knees. Now it’s up at the letters. There’s a lot more trouble up the ladder.

Reciprocity for velocity

A search on MLB’s video platform for at-bats resulting in HBP with velocities of 95 MPH or greater returns 169 results from this season. Most of those pitches do not break bones. But some do.

Mookie Betts is on the Injured List with a fractured hand after a 98 MPH fastball ran in on him last month. Amed Rosario took 100 to the face from fireballing Pirates rookie Jared Jones yet somehow only missed three games. Corey Seager returned last night (1-for-4, double) for the first time since being hit on the wrist by Orioles rookie Cade Povich on Saturday. It was a 91 MPH sinker. Injury can occur without peak velocity. Is there a difference between fastball command and responsibly pitching inside? I say yes, and I think the league could encourage it.

Maybe the new HBP criteria should cover all fastballs, regardless of velocity; at least then the rule wouldn’t only impact some pitchers. A 2021 article by Tom Verducci asserted that only about 50% of HBP come via the fastball. There are still plenty of chances to take first base the old fashioned way.

I’ve informally polled a handful of people in the game. I’ve received a mixed bag of replies. One of my favorites can be enacted immediately: To be eligible for the upgraded free bases, the batter must shed the elbow pads. How’s that sound?

Enjoy your Fourth of July! A vote in the poll below is a vote for America!