The Forgotten Free Agents
With at least 150 scouts out of work, a chance to gain competitive advantage is so obvious that no one sees it
The Yankees inconsistencies and struggles have been well documented lately. Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece earlier this week in The Athletic (subscription required) about their organization-wide failures.
In the article, Rosenthal touched on several issues, including the Yanks’ poor offense, incomplete starting rotation, curious spending, clumsily assembled roster, horrific baserunning, and the leadership of manager Aaron Boone.
The biggest omission from the article was the name of their $324 million ace: Gerrit Cole.
When your 26-man roster includes Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu, the future is now. And with Gerrit Cole*, the Yankees like their chances in a one-game playoff or short series.
There’s no rebuilding in the Bronx. In fact, what may obstruct the Yankees organization more than anything is their resolute inability to play for the future — to exchange a Wild Card berth this year for a 2022 roster better equipped to win the World Series.
With that in mind, I’m keeping an eye on the Cubs — the current leaders in the NL Central — because this past offseason their front office made decisions with an eye towards the future. Don’t forget, Chicago sent Yu Darvish to the Padres this winter in an effort to restock without embarking upon a full teardown. (It’ll be great if Darvish faces his old team in October.)
Yankees GM Brian Cashman doesn’t have the luxury of moving an established player for prospects and financial relief. But the Yankees currently aren’t good enough to withstand the gauntlet that is the postseason.
The stakes this year are much different for the Yankees than for the Cubs. I have a hard time seeing the Yankees parting ways with closer Aroldis Chapman, whereas the Cubs’ strategy — and Darvish precedent — affords them the flexibility to jettison Craig Kimbrel.
Regardless of what the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays do around them, the Yankees are constructed to push forward seemingly at all costs. They wake up on June 10 — with almost 40% of the season completed — in third place, 5.5 games behind the Rays.
The Tampa franchise has unlocked the MLB code the past few years, optimizing their roster and their dollars, and generally appearing one step ahead of the division if not the entire league. Do you remember when openers were such a big deal?
On May 19, 2018, the Rays called upon erstwhile closer Sergio Romo to start the game. He threw the first inning, conveniently striking out the side. Ryan Yarbrough took the mound for Tampa to start the second and pitched comfortably into the eighth inning.
The league was put on notice, and the Rays continued to deploy a variety of relievers to start games. Unsurprisingly, a handful of other teams attempted to copy the blueprint that season.
I bring this up to ask you: How many times have you heard about an opener this season, not including what you might use to crack open your beer or wine?
How quickly the game pivots!
The Yankees analytics department, well regarded in general and one of the first of its kind to have a real voice within an organization, is being challenged daily by the analysts and propeller-heads across the league.
They have long boasted a robust and capable research department and successfully paired it with a strong scouting presence. In fact, many of the Yanks’ maligned signings have been mitigated by shrewd acquisitions and major contributions from players making relatively little.
So while the Bombers’ current financial motivations will guide them to remain under the $210 million luxury tax threshold, there are still other ways they can flex monetary muscle.
A recent article by Josh Norris of Baseball America reports that “more than 150 scouting jobs were lost due to the pandemic and an industry-wide emphasis on data, analytics and cost-efficiency.” The Mariners and the Angels are listed as the two teams that have cut the most scouts since 2019 — 23 each.
(The other five teams that have reduced scouts by 10 or more since 2019 are the Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers; all of those teams are in playoff races this season. Coincidence?)
The Yankees have a great opportunity to add to one of their strengths and fortify their scouting departments, particularly the pro department that gathers information on all Major League and minor league players.
Has anyone been scouting the scouts and keeping tabs on which “free agent” scouts are available? Has anyone attempted to quantify the upside of identifying a player that can effectively hold down a spot in the lineup, rotation or bullpen, even for just one week?
Current replacement players like Tyler Wade and Rougned Odor, whom Boone relies on for regular at bats, have not provided the answer. Clearly, there’s more work to be done.
The analytics arms race continues. Almost every team is entrenched in the battle. Many teams are abandoning scouts, no matter how experienced and skilled the evaluator. Some talk about the pendulum swinging back. It may never, but that’s not the point. The time is now for the Yankees — or any other club that welcomes new information and experienced perspectives — to corner the market on shrewd evaluators.
Welcome to the Show
Luke Williams had a helluva night on Wednesday.
The rookie, who had a pinch-hit single in his first career at bat on Tuesday, hit his first home run the next night to give the Phillies a 2-1 walk-off win against the Braves.
You can see the homer and post-game interview here. It’s a great reminder of why we love baseball, and it’s especially great because Williams’ family is in the stands to witness it all — a moment not lost on him.
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